It is unlikely that Topps will stop making baseball cards in the foreseeable future, but there are some factors that could potentially impact their baseball card business in the long run. Topps has been the dominant manufacturer and distributor of baseball cards for decades, dating back to the early 1950s. The collectibles industry is evolving, and the baseball card market in particular faces some challenges.
While the traditional wax pack has been the foundation of Topps’ business model for generations of collectors, card sales have declined in recent years as the overall popularity of sports card collecting has gradually faded among younger audiences. Topps no longer enjoys the monopoly on licensed MLB trading cards it once had, with competitors like Panini increasing their market share. The rise of digital platforms and cryptocurrency presents possible new avenues for sports collectibles that Topps will need to explore.
Despite these trends, Topps still maintains strong relationships with both MLB and the players association which are crucial to continuation of their baseball card licenses. Their iconic brand remains very powerful in the industry, and recent initiatives like partnerships for exclusive NFT and digital card releases indicate the company is proactively working to engage new audiences and adapt their business. Collectors also have a strong nostalgic attachment to Topps as the traditional provider of cards which generates continuing residual demand.
As long as Topps can maintain their MLB licenses, which are valuable assets, it is very likely they will find ways to remain commercially viable even as sales volumes change. It seems highly probable baseball cards will be part of their product mix for the foreseeable future, as they represent one of Topps’ flagship collectibles. Their baseball card portfolio may evolve, such as through increased reliance on higher-end specialty sets targeted at avid adult collectors instead of traditional wax packs.
Topps also has other sports and entertainment licensing businesses beyond just baseball which provide revenue diversification. While overall card sales may trend downward long-term without a resurgence in popularity among younger demographics, Topps is an extremely adaptable company with over 65 years of experience in the collectibles industry. Barring any unexpected major disruptions like losing their MLB rights, it is reasonable to assume Topps will sustain their baseball card business for many years to come by transitioning their business model as market conditions warrant.
Some factors that could potentially threaten Topps’ baseball card operations in a longer 20-30 year timeframe include: a sustained secular decline in all trading card consumption causing financial difficulties; failure to successfully compete in digital collectibles spaces; loss of MLB player or league licensing agreements; or significant legal/regulatory issues disrupting their industry similar to what befell the tobacco card business decades ago. None of those negative scenarios seem very probable at this time based on the longevity of Topps’ brand dominance, continuous evolution of their business model, and the nostalgic appeal of their cardboard collectibles to older consumers and enthusiasts.
While Topps will likely produce fewer baseball cards in the raw unit volume of the past, it is very improbable they will exit the baseball card market altogether in the medium or near term, presuming they can maintain present revenue levels. The Topps brand is synonymous with baseball cards, and they appear poised to adjust their product strategy and explore new opportunities successfully for many years of continuing to service the needs of both casual and devoted collectors. For the foreseeable future, Topps baseball cards should remain iconic staples of the hobby and an important part of their diverse business portfolio.
