The 2021 Topps MLB baseball card release marked another highly anticipated year for the hobby. As the dominant brand in the trading card industry for over 65 years, Topps is a manufacturer whose releases are always widely collected and highly sought after. Understandably, the value of cards from the 2021 Topps set has fluctuated significantly in the months since the product was released to the marketplace last spring.
Some key trends that have shaped the 2021 Topps card values include huge spikes in popularity for star rookies like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladamir Guerrero Jr. Tatis ended up having one of the best individual seasons of any player in baseball in 2021, which maintained high valuations for his flagship rookie card in particular. Guerrero also posted All-Star caliber numbers during his third MLB campaign, keeping collectors hungry for any of his parallels or short prints from Topps.
Among the veterans, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels continues to be one of the most valuable modern players in the collecting realm. Low numbered refractor versions of his base card from the 2021 Topps release still command four-figure prices on the secondary market. Other established superstars like Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts also hold significant value within the set in high-end parallels.
In terms of rookie short prints and refractors, cards of top prospects like Randy Arozarena, Brendan McKay, and Jarred Kelenic are now trading hands for hundreds or even thousands of dollars based on their future potential alone. These valuations can fluctuate greatly depending on how their MLB careers actually develop. The same volatility affects cards of veterans who have down years or suffer major injuries.
Perhaps the most impactful market force shaping 2021 Topps values though has been the boom in overall MLB card collecting popularity over the past year. Millions of new and returning collectors entered the hobby during the pandemic, creating unprecedented demand for modern sealed wax boxes and cases. Combined with shortages from general distribution issues, this perfect storm scenario caused prices across the board to skyrocket throughout 2021.
As supplies dwindle, unopened 2021 Topps Series 1, 2, and Update hobby boxes now sell for 3-5x their original MRSP. Full sets of each Series are nearly impossible to assemble affordably via singles either. Individual base rookies and stars routinely hit new record highs as well. It’s become common for desirable rookie parallels and Gold Label parallels to pull four-figure sums when they surface on eBay.
Graded/encapsulated copies fare even better, as condition sensitive collecting remains a huge part of the boom. Top graded rookies like Tatis PSA 10s have sold for well over $1000 each before. Iconic Trout and Acuna rookies in Gem Mint 10 also maintain high price points. While population numbers are still limited on modern issues, higher population slabs of stars still bring strong bids too.
The unexpected and remarkable rise in interest for the 2021 Topps baseball brands means that values across the board are significantly higher than would be typical for a normal year without a pandemic influencing the overall trading card environment. Long term, as more supply is reintroduced and the overall frenzy quiets, prices are expected to stabilize and normalize from current all-time highs. But for the foreseeable future, 2021 Topps issues remain among the most sought after and expensive modern sets on the secondary market. Their enduring brand recognition combined with scarce availability ensures they will retain a premium for years to come.
For astute collectors and interested investors, this presents both challenges and opportunities related to discerning value. With such volatility, purchases require extra diligence on fair pricing norms and specific player/card performance risks. On the other hand, strategically picking up affordable raw/slabbed singles of stars and top prospects with breakout upside could yield excellent long term returns. The 2021 Topps baseball line holds tremendous interest across the entire collecting spectrum. With scarcity high and demand stronger than ever before, values show no signs of completely crashing down from current appreciated heights just yet.
