For over 70 years, Topps has been the lead producer of sports trading cards, most notably for their iconic baseball cards. Rumors have been swirling for the last few years that Topps may soon stop making baseball cards altogether due to increasing competition and financial struggles. While Topps executives have denied plans to end baseball card production anytime soon, the future remains uncertain.
Topps first got its start in baseball cards all the way back in 1938 and established itself as the dominant brand over subsequent decades. At its peak in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Topps was selling billions of baseball cards per year. Mounting challenges have threatened the future viability of Topps’ baseball card business. One key issue is rising competition from other trading card companies like Upper Deck, Score, and Fanatics that have eaten into Topps’ market share over the years. These rivals offer flashier, higher quality cards that appeal more to modern collectors.
Another problem is that the overall baseball card industry has been in decline for over two decades now. Fewer kids are getting into collecting today compared to the heyday eras of the 1980s/90s. Digital technologies like video games, smartphones, and streaming have lured younger generations away from traditional hobbies like collecting sports cards. While the popularity of memorabilia has kept some collectors engaged, overall sales volumes have plunged industry wide. Between 1993-2018, the baseball card market shrunk by a staggering 90% according to industry sources.
The plunging sales hit Topps particularly hard because they had relied so heavily on the baseball card business for revenue. Where once baseball cards made up the lion’s share of profits, today they are a fading portion of Topps’ portfolio. To offset losses, Topps has diversified into other areas like evolving their digital offerings, acquiring the popular Garbage Pail Kids and Cabbage Patch Kids brands, launching an NFT platform, and much more. None of these newer ventures have come close to replacing the revenue that was once generated by baseball cards alone.
On top of sinking sales, Topps also deals with the costly matter of licensing fees to MLB, MLBPA, and individual players each year. These expenses amount to tens of millions annually and are not getting any cheaper. With thinning margins, it has become a burden for Topps to pay expensive licensing fees and risk losing money on baseball card production runs. Some analysts argue it no longer makes financial sense for Topps to stay in the baseball card industry long term at its current size and scale.
The final concern is that rival companies like Fanatics have been aggressively pursuing exclusive sports trading card contracts in recent years. There is a real possibility that Fanatics could eventually outbid Topps for the coveted MLB and MLBPA licenses. Without access to those licenses, Topps would have no choice but to walk away from making official MLB cards. Such a scenario would mark the end of an iconic brand’s dominance after eight decades.
Even Topps executives now acknowledge the business realities, with the company’s chairman telling ESPN “Five years from now baseball cards may be a small part of what Topps does.” That admission speaks volumes about how drastically the baseball card profit picture has changed for Topps. For nostalgia and brand value reasons, Topps isn’t quite ready to fully shut down production lines just yet. They will keep churning out MLB cards as long as the licenses remain attainable.
Should Topps ultimately cease making baseball cards in the coming years, it would undoubtedly sadden many collectors and fans. From a cold hard numbers perspective, most analysts argue it may be the prudent business decision. With digital platforms booming and physical card sales dwindling, the cost-benefit analysis does not favor continuing to invest huge sums into a declining industry. Topps needs to prioritize profitable sectors and transition away from being overly reliant on baseball cards as a revenue source. Regardless of what the future holds, Topps’ decades-long dominance of the baseball card world made for an incredible legacy that may be coming to an end.
While nothing is certain, there are clear indicators Topps may call it quits on baseball cards before too long due to various challenges. Increased competition, falling sales, rising costs, and potential loss of licenses all loom as serious threats. Topps will try to hang on as long as it can afford to do so, but tough choices may need to be made. The days of Topps as the king of baseball cards could be numbered if present trends continue. Only time will tell how this iconic story ultimately concludes in the years ahead.
