Topps Baseball cards have been an integral part of baseball culture and fandom since1938. In recent years, the company has faced increased competition and challenges that have threatened its viability. While Topps is not going out of business imminently, there are signs the business model may need to evolve in order to survive long term.
Topps’s dominance in the baseball card industry has waned in recent decades as new competitors like Upper Deck emerged. While Topps held around 80% of the baseball card market share in the 1990s, it now has closer to 30-40% as companies like Upper Deck, Leaf, and Panini have captured more fans. The rise of memorabilia, autograph, and relic cards has taken business away from traditional base card releases. Topps has tried to compete by including hits, autos, and parallels in its flagship sets but has struggled to gain ground.
Perhaps the biggest challenge comes from changes in how fans, especially younger ones, engage with collectibles. As smartphones rose to prominence, the physical card industry declined. Many fans gravitated to virtual/digital cards available through apps or online trading platforms. Topps has attempted to transition with offerings like Topps BUNT but digital revenue still makes up a much smaller slice of overall sales. Declining physical card sales hit Topps hardest as its revenue relies almost entirely on the sale of wax packs, boxes, and hobby deals to local card shops.
The rise of internet platforms for reselling cards also disrupted the industry. Sites like eBay allowed fans to buy and sell individual singles, reducing demand for packs filled with common duplicate cards. When combined with overall declines in interest among younger audiences, reduced pack sales hit Topps hard. Some analysts peg the overall baseball card industry decline around 60% in the late 2010s compared to its 1990s peak.
To make matters more precarious, Topps lost the MLB license after the 2021 season when competitor Fanatics/Panini signed an exclusive multi-year deal. While Topps can still feature current players through individual licensing deals, the loss of official MLB branding rights deprived the company of a major product differentiator for its flagship cards. It also potentially opens up confusion if a new MLB partnership produces competing sets.
All of these challenges weighed heavily on Topps. In 2020, when the company became publicly traded through a SPAC merger, it carried over $1 billion in debt. Share prices sank dramatically as sales and profits continued to slide industrywide. Some analysts expressed doubts about long term viability without a business model pivot. Further complicating the situation was a proposed acquisition by former MLB owner Jimmy Cohen that was rejected by shareholders.
It may be premature to count Topps out just yet. The company retains iconic brand recognition after decades of production and has navigated industry turmoil before. Topps also seems aware changes are needed, undertaking partnerships for experiences like Topps NFTs and focusing digital efforts. Topps still controls popular non-sports licenses like Garbage Pail Kids and Decades that bring in revenue. And physical cards remain hot sellers during the current nostalgia boom, potentially giving Topps room to reinvent. But time may be running short unless Topps finds ways to better engage new audiences and transition its revenue streams. Only with a shakeup of its business approach can Topps truly secure its long term survival in a rapidly shifting collectibles landscape.
While Topps Baseball Cards faces very real competitive pressures and business model challenges currently, it does retain legacy brand equity and upside potential if leadership can successfully navigate changes. The company is not doomed or insolvent imminently. But Topps will need to reinvent, diversify revenue streams, better integrate digital offerings, and find innovative solutions to aging problems to ensure its viability in collectibles markets for years ahead. Overall financial troubles and industry declines make the situation precarious without strategic action, but counting out Topps just yet would be premature given factors that could enable turnarounds. Only time will tell if Topps can course correct or risks fading over the long haul.
