While Topps has been the dominant force in baseball cards for decades, holding the exclusive license from MLB, their monopoly came to an end in 2022 which has led to speculation that it may mark the end of an era for Topps baseball cards. The situation is complex with many moving parts, so it’s too early to say definitively if 2022 was truly the last year for Topps or if they will find a way to retain a prominent role in the baseball card market going forward.

To understand the changing landscape, we need to look at what precipitated this shift. Topps has held the exclusive license to produce official MLB cards since 1958 in a very favorable arrangement. In 2020 that deal was set to expire. Seeking to leverage their valuable rights and looking to create more competition and opportunities, MLB opened the license up for bidding for the first time. Two new entrants jumped at the chance – Fanatics, the dominant brand in sports merchandise, and The card company Panini, which had long held licenses for the NFL and NBA.

In early 2021, it was announced that MLB granted exclusive multi-year licenses to both Fanatics and Panini, ending Topps’ monopoly. While terms were not disclosed, the deals were undoubtedly much more lucrative for MLB than the arrangement with Topps. To make matters worse for Topps, Fanatics then acquired Topps as a whole later in 2021. So heading into 2022, Topps was now under the control of their new direct competition in Fanatics and their license was gone.

Some saw this as dooming Topps baseball cards. Without the official MLB rights and logo, their cards stood to lose value to collectors. And with Fanatics now owning the brand but also promoting their own MLB license, would they even want Topps to keep making cards? This led to speculation 2022 would be the swan song. The situation is more complex.

For one, Topps still retains the rights to use player names and stats under existing MLBPA players union deals. So their cards won’t completely lack substance. Also, Topps remains a massive brand with over 60 years of history and an entrenched collector base. Simply discontinuing the line would abandon that goodwill. Further, Fanatics may see value in Topps continuing as a lower-priced competitor to drive sales across the category by having multiple options at different price points.

We’ve also seen Fanatics take steps to keep Topps viable, like promoting both Topps and Fanatics/Panini cards on their commerce sites. They also didn’t disrupt Topps’ 2022 release schedule and plans. This suggests Fanatics sees room for both and isn’t aiming to immediately put Topps out of business, but rather transition the brand over time under the Fanatics corporate structure.

There’s also no guarantee the new Fanatics and Panini MLB deals lock them up long-term. Five years from now, conditions could open the door for Topps to potentially bid again themselves for a future MLB license.

While 2022 marked significant changes with the loss of Topps’ MLB license that understandably caused worry, it’s too early to say it was definitively their final year or they are doomed given the complexity of factors at play. Fanatics’ ownership of Topps provides both challenges and opportunities. With clever management of the brand, Topps baseball cards could certainly continue on for many years to come even without those official logo rights. Only time will tell how their role may evolve.