While Topps has been the dominant force in baseball cards for decades, their future in producing cards is uncertain as their exclusive license with Major League Baseball is set to expire after 2025. There are a few factors that could potentially cause Topps to stop making baseball cards in the coming years:
Competition from Fanatics: In January 2026, Fanatics will take over from Topps as MLB’s licensed trading card partner. Fanatics, which is the dominant online seller of sports merchandise and apparel, outbid Topps for the new exclusive trading card license. With the massive resources of Fanatics now behind MLB cards, it will be very difficult for Topps to compete without access to official MLB players, logos, and team markings that come with an exclusive license. Topps had been MLB’s exclusive trading card partner since 1953, but their era of control could be coming to an end.
Declining Baseball Card sales: The baseball card industry has been struggling in recent years with declining sales and interest from younger consumers. While some vintage and memorabilia cards still sell well, the bulk sales of packs and boxes have lagged. From 2010-2020, annual baseball card sales dropped over 50%. As cards transition more to a collector’s item than a mainstream consumer good, Topps may see the market as no longer large or consistent enough to justify continuing production without the MLB license.
Financial troubles at parent company Fanatics: Topps was purchased in 2020 by a group including Michael Rubiner, former chairman and CEO of Forbes, and private equity firm Apollo Global Management. Their parent company Fanatics finalized a deal in January 2022 to be acquired by sports conglomerate Fanatics in a deal that valued Fanatics at $27 billion. There is uncertainty regarding how Fanatics’ financial situation and priorities may change post-acquisition, which could impact Topps’ baseball card plans, especially after losing the MLB license.
NFT and Digital ventures taking focus: Topps has branched out in recent years from physical cards into digital sports and entertainment products, including their popular Topps NFTs on Wax blockchain. These digital collectibles represent a growing part of Topps’ business. After losing the MLB license, Topps may choose to divest more resources into these digital areas rather than continuing to produce traditional cardboard cards without the official MLB marketing rights and brand synergy.
Lack of a fallback plan: Topps does produce various non-MLB entertainment and soccer cards. Baseball has always been their #1 sport and driving force of the business. With no clear contingency plan in place for when/if they lose the MLB partnership, it’s possible Topps will find it too risky and unprofitable to maintain card production without an obvious replacement sport property of similar size and popularity to anchor the company going forward.
While nothing is certain, the confluence of Topps soon losing their MLB license to Fanatics, declining physical card sales industrywide, uncertainty surrounding their ownership situation, and their growing focus on digital products creates credible challenges for Topps’ long-term future in producing traditional baseball cards. It’s possible they may choose to entirely transition the business model rather than attempting to directly compete against Fanatics for MLB fandom without the same official marketing rights. However, Topps does have over 65 years of brand equity in baseball cards as well, so they may try and find alternative solutions to keep their established cardboard product lines alive long-term. Only time will tell which direction Topps decides is their best strategic path after their 2025 MLB deal expires. But major changes clearly seem to be ahead for the legacy Topps brand and its place within the baseball card industry.
