IS THE NEW BASEBALL CARD SET “TOPPS UPDATE” WORTH INVESTING IN?
Each year, Topps releases an updated version of their flagship baseball card product called Topps Update in late summer/early fall. The 2023 version hit hobby shops in late August, and as with any new release, collectors and investors are trying to determine if it makes sense to purchase packs and boxes of the set with hopes of holding cards long-term to appreciate in value. After researching the key factors around the 2023 Topps Update release, here is my take on whether it is worth investing in:
Rookie Class – arguably the most important consideration for any modern baseball card product’s long-term investment potential is the quality and star power of the rookie class featured. The 2023 Update set has one of the strongest rookie classes we’ve seen in years. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez had a breakout rookie campaign in 2022 that has vaulted him to superstardom. He possesses clear 5-tool talent and should be an perennial All-Star for years to come. Tampa Bay Rays shortstop/outfielder Vidal Brujan showed flashes in his MLB debut and is still just 24 years old. Hard-throwing righty George Kirby of the Mariners proved he belongs in the major league rotation as a rookie. Other notable rookie cards like Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene and Miami Marlins outfielder Peyton Burdick add to the depth of investment-worthy options. When grading the rookie class, Topps Update 2023 earns an A.
Content – a big new addition to the 2023 Update checklist is the inclusion of all the top prospect cards from Bowman Draft and Bowman Chrome Draft that summer. Names like Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green and Jackson Holliday headline an excellent draft class. The set also features all of the most significant rookie debuts, breakouts, injuries returns and team changes from the second half of the season. Staple subsets return like Black Border Parallels, Galactic parallels and 1986/1992 Tribute Cards. As an update set, it does a fantastic job capturing the most meaningful on-field performances, prospects and storylines of the year. The content is very comprehensive and suitable for both collectors and investors. Grade: A
Print Run – Always a crucial factor, but difficult for outsiders to know definitively. According to insider sources, the print run for 2022 Topps Update fell somewhere in the 8-10 million range. As one of Topps’ premier annually-released baseball sets, Update print runs are higher than most, but still reasonable relative to the size and passion for the hobby. It’s no Chrome, but Update certainly isn’t overproduced in a way that would diminish cards’ long-term values. There is enough scarcity to fuel collecting and investing interest without being overly restrictive. Grade: B+
Design – Each year Topps tweaks the visual design slightly. The 2023 rendition maintains the clean and classic baseball card look with sharp color contrast and player photos occupying most of the front. Statistics and team logos on the back provide important info for collectors. While not the flashiest annually-produced baseball set, the understated design maintains tradition in a way that collectors appreciate. Topps did a nice job with parallel and insert set designs as well. Grade: A-
Past Performance – Looking back at Topps Update offerings from years past gives us our best indicator of how the cards from this year’s set might appreciate with time. Holofoil and Black Border parallels from sets like 2014, 2015 and 2017 Update are highly sought after today. Rookie cards of stars like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Walker Buehler and others from their respective Update years trade hands frequently in the secondary marketplace. Even draft picks and prospects from past Updates that panned out like Eloy Jimenez, Shane Bieber and Bo Bichette are valued commodities nowadays. Topps Update as a release has proven itself very investible, so that bodes well for 2023. Grade: A
Secondary Market – Though just released, early signs point to strong immediate secondary market demand and liquidity for 2023 Topps Update cards. Julio Rodriguez rookies have exploded in price and sell out instantly on eBay. New star rookies like Greene and Burdick plus top prospects gain value daily. Low serial number parallels move quickly at auction. Even base rookies and stars trade hands. When a new release shows signs of rapid appreciation and sales velocity, that shows investor confidence in the long-term potential. This level of activity out of the gate bodes very well. Grade: A
Economic Factors – Some uncertainty remains in how inflation and potential recession may impact discretionary spending on sports cards and affect the collectibles economy going forward. Baseball cards have proven relatively resistant to economic downturns previously. Enthusiasm remains high, as does the steady influx of new collectors. Modern cards have also become a popular investment vehicle, not just a hobby. As long as the sport of baseball remains popular in America, its cards provide a relatively safe asset compared to stocks or cryptocurrencies. The infrastructure supporting the baseball card trade is also well-established. Current macroeconomic conditions don’t seem likely to negatively dent the 2023 Topps Update product long-term. Grade: B
When considering all of the key factors – especially the investment-worthy rookie class and history of strong long-term performance of Topps Update cards – it is clear that 2023 Topps Update earns very high marks as a recommendable baseball card product to purchase packs or boxes of with goals of holding for investment purposes. Few annually-produced sports card sets offer the proven long-term appreciation that Topps Update regularly delivers on cards from breakout rookies, young star performers and top prospects. While short-term “flipping” profitably is never guaranteed, those who acquire 2023 Topps Update now stand an excellent chance of the cards growing significantly in worth five or ten years down the line. For investors seeking upside within the baseball card market, Topps Update 2023 looks like one of this year’s top offerings.
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